The system, which for now is known as Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 but would become Helene if it’s upgraded to a storm, on Monday afternoon was about 100 miles southwest of Grand Cayman with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph and higher gusts, according to the National Hurricane Center. It was moving north-northwest at 7 mph.
A turn toward the northwest is expected Tuesday, followed by an acceleration toward the Northeast on Wednesday and Thursday, the hurricane center said.
“On the forecast track, the center of the system is forecast to move across the northwestern Caribbean Sea through Tuesday night, and then over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and Thursday,” the hurricane center said in an update Monday evening.
The disturbance is forecast to become a hurricane Wednesday and continue to strengthen as it moves through the eastern Gulf of Mexico. A tropical storm is defined as having winds of 39 mph or higher and a hurricane of 74 mph or higher, according to the National Weather Service.
As it enters the Gulf of Mexico, the system could strengthen due to a staple fuel for hurricanes: warm water. While average sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico peak near 80 degrees in summer, many National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration-monitored buoys on a fall Monday measured temperatures from 84 to 89 degrees.